📉 January's planning stats show little momentum...

From statistics issued last week by Dodge Construction Network, January's numbers rose 0.1% in January, a near flatline caused by commercial planning falling 1% and institutional planning rising 2.1%. Slowing warehouse planning knocked commercial while education and healthcare supported institutional. Some things to note:

• 15 projects valued at $100mm or more entered planning in January.

• Largest commercial: $200mm renovation of the Magnolia Hotel in Dallas, TX.

• Largest institutional: $169mm Microsoft Data Center in Leesburg, VA.

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) is a stat that leads construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. As far as momentum goes, a 0.1% shift implies, you guessed it, not very much momentum. But commercial and institutional planning playing tug of war is nothing new; dating back to this time last year, non-res construction's DMI is down 3% (-12% commercial +15% institutional).

🔨 Here's the Thing

Momentum is tied to interest rates and right now both are staying put. Last year, many folks thought the Fed would cut rates in March '24, but that's looking extremely unlikely. In spite of lower gas prices (-3.3%) and a strong job market (+350,000 jobs in January), still-too-high inflation is what the Fed mostly looks at when it comes to slashing interest rates that have stayed 5.25-5.5% since July. It now appears that June is the new likeliest month that the Fed will cut rates. But that could push to September according to some. This feels like a stubborn cough that just won't go away.

No matter what, 2025 has promising market conditions, meaning commercial planning in the second half of this year expects to balloon. Mo' promise, mo' momentum.

"I keep gettin' older and the Fed keeps interest the same rate."

💬 Contractor Quote

“Divergent trends between commercial and institutional planning continued in January, nullifying any growth on the overall Momentum Index. Nevertheless, lending standards begun to loosen in January and the Fed is expected to begin cutting rates in the back half of the year. With this in mind, momentum should resume in commercial activity throughout 2024 as owners and developers gain confidence in market conditions for 2025."

—Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting for Dodge Construction Network

Reading about ominous tech news in every Consumables section

Where credit is due: There's a new dating app that matches people based on their credit score, because it wouldn't be a Consumables section without a piece of news that confirms we're living in an episode of Black Mirror. (tech)

Real deal: In a world that feels like it'll soon be inundated with deepfakes, Adobe's leading a content validity initiative to find criteria that verifies photos and videos are real following a photography contest winner admitting they just used AI. (AI)

Nerd 'round the world: In what could be the tech world equivalent to Franz Ferdinand's assassination igniting WWI, Mark Zuckerberg just said the Meta Quest 3 is better than Apple's Vision Pro headset. Your move, Apple. (tech)

Joint custody: Does cracking your knuckles cause arthritis? Here are 9 busted myths about cracking your joints. (blog)

Superb: Thanks in part to the star power of the real version of the couple in our header image, last weekend's Super Bowl was apparently the most watched thing of all time. Here are the commercial highlights and lowlights. (Super Bowl)

Some people want it all: During the Halftime show, Alicia Keys' voice cracked right when she started singing which was edited out for all future viewings of the performance. (Super Bowl)

The Last Four of Us: We're so inundated with Marvel at this point that there's very little Marvel news that could get us to blink—hold on a second! Pedro Pascal and Cousin from The Bear are going to star in the reboot of the reboot of the Fantastic Four reboot? (movies)

Tastemaker: Kyle Chayka on the art of developing personal style in an age when algorithms loom over aesthetics and culture. (podcast)

Word games: New dictionary word drop highlights include "girl dinner," "the ick," "mid," and "range anxiety," which is defined as the apprehension or fear that an electric vehicle’s battery will run out of power before reaching one’s intended destination or a charging station. (news)

Love bomb: Did you know the history of Valentine's Day started as a feast celebrating a decapitation? Now it's about flowers, circling a yes, no, or maybe and candy that has the consistency of chalk. (history)

Until next time,

The SLAB

*Slabster? Slabber? Slabberwocky? We're workshopping names for you, bear with us. If you have a good idea, please reply to this email and let us know.